The final jobs report capturing a snapshot of the economy during the Biden administration will be released Friday.
Notably, it will include regularly scheduled revisions to jobs figures going back to March. Those figures are likely to be revised significantly downward, upending the extent of previously reported job gains.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics already announced last summer that an initial estimate of 818,000 fewer jobs were created in 2023 and early 2024 than were initially reported.
Still, economists continue to maintain that, on balance, the U.S. labor market remains in decent shape, though there were still some signs of weakness heading into President Donald Trump’s inauguration.
Forecasters surveyed by Dow Jones were expecting a gain of 169,000 payrolls for January, down from 256,000 in December, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%.
“Initial jobless claims and surveys indicating firms are reducing employment both remain low, suggesting no substantial pick-up in layoffs,” analysts with Citigroup said in a research note this week. “But surveys also continue to suggest consumers perceive jobs are harder to get, consistent with low quits and not a sign of confidence in the labor market. And most importantly, we have not seen indications of a pick-up in demand for workers as hiring remains very low.”
Despite those weaker indicators, other surveys suggested employers were optimistic that Trump would establish a more business-friendly environment through tax-cut extensions and deregulation and were indicating they planned to add more workers.
“Hiring intentions have gone up across the board,” said Eric Wallerstein, chief markets strategist at the Yardeni Research consultancy. Trump’s election, he said, has boosted the “animal spirits” that generally signal more economic growth.
Adding to those favorable conditions is an interest-rate environment that is stabilizing. Economists now believe the Federal Reserve is unlikely to dramatically alter interest-rate levels — and even Trump recently said the central bank’s decision in late January to hold rates at their current levels was the right one.
Uncertainty of any kind is among the most feared conditions for businesses, and Wallerstein said there is now widespread agreement that borrowing rates will not move much from here. While that may disappoint consumers who were hoping to pay less on things like credit card and auto loan bills, greater certainty generally supports economic growth.
Separately, Trump’s tariff threats have also caused market turbulence, and some Wall Street analysts have signaled they would revise their economic growth estimates should he begin to fully implement them.
In a research note this week, Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY (formerly Ernst & Young), said GDP could contract by as much as 1.5% this year, with inflation climbing an average of 0.4 additional percentage points, depending on the extent of Trump’s tariff levies.
“Rising trade policy uncertainty will heighten financial market volatility and strain the private sector, despite the administration’s pro-business rhetoric,” Daco wrote.
Meanwhile, given how low hiring rates are and how narrowly job gains are concentrated in a handful of sectors like health care and state and local government, many people looking for jobs are still likely to encounter difficulties.
But overall, official job indicators remain in good shape. Unemployment is relatively low, while labor force participation, or the extent of the population that is active in the workforce, and employment-population ratios are at or near all-time highs.
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